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   Improving Crime Data Project

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  

Revised August 20, 2003

Original Release August 3, 2003

New Homicide Ranking Controls For Demographic and Social Factors

Researchers from the University of Missouri-St. Louis, Georgia State University, and Carnegie Mellon University today released rankings of 21 major US cities based on rates of homicide (number of homicides divided by the city's population) in 2002.  The rankings reflect the raw rates per population and also the rates adjusted for differences across the cities in demographic and social factors.  The adjusted rates result in important changes in the ranking for several cities.

Police and other public officials, especially in high-crime-rate cities, often complain that ranking cities by their crime rates is misleading and unfair because cities differ in poverty, unemployment, and other crime-producing factors beyond their control.  Criminologists Richard Rosenfeld, Alfred Blumstein, and Robert Friedmann applied a statistical model that adjusts each city's homicide figures for such factors.  The researchers maintain that the model produces a more meaningful comparison of city homicide levels, especially for providing insight into the effectiveness of criminal justice policies and programs.

The homicide rankings of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Miami, and Cleveland drop dramatically when differences in economic and social disadvantage and population stability are statistically controlled. Other changes Without the statistical adjustments, Atlanta ranks 5th, Philadelphia 8th, Miami 9th, and Cleveland 11th among the 21 cities in the study [see Table below].

At the same time, the adjusted rankings for Phoenix, San Francisco, and Seattle are much higher than in the unadjusted ranking.  Homicide rates in these cities are higher than would be expected given their level of disadvantage and population stability.      

The homicide rank of other cities remains relatively unchanged.  New York places low on both the unadjusted and adjusted ranking.  New Orleans and Washington, DC are at the top of both rankings.

The 21 major cities in the study are geographically and socially diverse and are not intended to be representative of all US cities.  They contain about 10% of the nation’s population but account for 30% of the homicides committed in the U.S. in 2002.

The homicide study was conducted for the project “Improving Crime Data” (ICD).  ICD is funded by the National Institute of Justice and is an initiative of the Great Cities Universities, a consortium of 20 urban public research universities. 

ICD will develop and disseminate quarterly statistics for homicide and other serious crimes in large US cities.  Robert Friedmann, Ph.D., of Georgia State University and Richard Rosenfeld, Ph.D., of the University of Missouri-St. Louis are principal and co-principal investigator on the project.  The quarterly crime monitoring program is sponsored jointly by ICD and the National Consortium on Violence Research (NCOVR).  Alfred Blumstein, Ph.D., is the director of NCOVR.

A description of the statistical model used to generate the adjusted city homicide ranking can be found at ICD and at NCOVR. 

Contact:

Homicide Rankings of 21 Major Cities

Green = Cities with lower ranking after adjustment

Red = Cities with higher ranking after adjustment